Volume 1, Number 15 May 31, 2006 BioComp Home Dakota Home Archives Store
Volume 1, Number 15 May
31,
2006
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Welcome to "BioComp
Investors & Traders" A newsletter / journal for financially interested customers and friends.
Video Swarms: Revisiting The Video Swarms About a month ago, I reported on whether the Dakota swarms I show in the demonstration videos were making money, at least hypothetically, going forward in "out-of-sample out-of-sample" (trading beyond the date that the swarms were built and saved). So, I opened them up again today and ran them to current data as of yesterday, plus I tacked on the new videos too. I don't have all videos swarms here, I think I'm missing the Natural Gas one, and the Propane video was recreated on March 17th, instead of February, because I either lost these guys due to disk problems or I forgot to save them, not thinking early on that I might be tracking them like this. Here's the equity when they were originally created and the equity as of May 30th and their percent gain:
This is not meant to be an authoritative accounting and all results are hypothetical, but we can see that about 90% of the swarms I built and put on display continue to make money. The big gainer, Propane, infrequently trades long only. During the period it opened and closed a large trade. The biggest (only) loser, the "investor" S&P system, is expected to be down because of the recent market decline, as it follows long trends and it is presently long. The second largest gainer was WCI. No trades were closed, but the system went short on April 18th and nicely WCI's stock took a dive. The third largest gainer, AXP, executed 8 trades with 50% winners, but the winners beat the losers in $ by almost 2:1. There were two consecutive losers totaling 1.5 $/share, but it immediately closed another trade for 2.34 $/share. I have a non-adapted NASDAQ 100 system following the adaptive one above. What I mean by this is the non-adaptive swarm has the bot parameter values fixed to constant values, like a regular trading system. The adaptive swarm above gained 30.47 points while the non-adaptive system gained only 14.175 points, less than half. The non-adaptive system earned 700 less points over the last 5 years, almost half as well. I also have a Rydex Velocity non-adaptive system. It did gain a couple more points since April than the adaptive one, but it also had accumulated only about 2/3rds the points of the adaptive one over the 5 year history. Adaptive total points: 40.82, Non-Adaptive total points: 28.90 Now, granted, these systems are not contest winners, but on the other hand, they are just demo examples I made for some promotional videos. The main point here is that, more often than not, these swarms continue to make money going forward. That's a good thing. Questions or comments? Email me at cmcook@biocompsystems.com
New Dakota and Profit Forums One nice thing about the forums is the private messaging. You can now privately contact other users with a click of a button enabling customers in the USA, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Italy, Germany, Canada, Australia, South Africa, England, Sweden, Uruguay, Luxembourg and numerous other countries to privately contact each other. The forums we have are...
Since the access to the prior
web sites for Profit and Dakota are quickly going away,
If you are a licensed user, please register ! Come, read and share...
Technical Talk:
Faster is Not Necessarily Better Here enters counter-trading... In the counter-trading I'm referring to here, the belief is, in the near term, if a security is rising it's actually approaching a reversal. So when you detect an up-trend, you are actually preparing to short the security. You don't want to reverse your position too close to the detection of the trend because you might accidentally short the rise. Instead, you want to go a bit later, so your short position falls near the peak that is coming (and vice versa). In this "detect, wait a bit and counter trade" situation, you may find it to your advantage to slow your moving averages down. Instead of using an AMA, or an XMA, it might be smart ($) to return to the good old "classic" SMA. I've experimented with the "Double-Smoothed-Stochastic" bot in BioComp Dakota, one of the best counter-trading money-making trading bots. This bot was authored by one of our Dakota users, Bob Anderton (www.PrescientAnalytics.com) and it uses good old SMA's for its smoothing calculations. I've modified that bot this way and that, trying XMAs, AMAs and some other faster moving averages and my conclusion is that the faster the moving average, the worse it performs. And with the "most-super-contabulously-fasterest" moving average, it just doesn't work. It enters the reverse position too soon and equity is damaged. In fact, the performance of the trading system direct or counter trading is gone. It sits in that middle point no-man's land where it is useless for either one. But, use a slow, old-school SMA and it pumps money out of many securities with grace. So, at least in counter-trading, I've learned ... ...faster is not better.
Dakota End-of-Day
"Sponsor" License is... Ending If you missed out getting a Sponsor level license with unlimited Dakota end-of-day lifetime upgrades, you still can. Dakota end-of-day Sponsor License ends Sunday, June 4th, 2006, at Midnight. If you want to do this, we'll make it easier for you to say "Yes"... We'll cut the investment by about 15% Standard to Sponsor discounted upgrade: $950 If you are an existing Dakota user and wish to grab the Sponsor level licensing now, please send an email to sales@biocompsystems.com for a quotation, considering you may receive an additional Silver (10%), Gold (15%) or Platinum (25%) Preferred Customer Discount. If you are not yet a Dakota user,
you can, if you wish, order here: Either new or upgraded, we'll be processing orders on the weekend. P.S. I know for many of you that have never been our customer, there is an element of trust involved in a Sponsor license. We understand that. For our long-time customers, most of which are Dakota Sponsors, we've hopefully earned that trust over the years and we're working hard to maintain that trust and hope to earn yours as well.
Closure
This newsletter is brought to you by BioComp Systems, Inc. Please forward it to anyone who might be interested. They can also subscribe at: http://www.biocompsystems.com/cgi-bin/mojo.cgi?f=s&l=Profit
These documents are provided for informational
purposes only. The information contained in this document represents the
current view of BioComp Systems on the material discussed as of the date of publication. Materials
written should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of
BioComp and BioComp cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information
presented after the date of publication. INFORMATION PROVIDED
IN THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED "AS IS" WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EITHER
EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF
MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND FREEDOM FROM
INFRINGEMENT. Statements of equity performance
are
hypothetical and have not been substantiated by records of actual trading.
Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent
limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not
represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually
been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the
impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that
they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is
being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses
similar to those mentioned. |
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