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News Items

BioComp Profit 8.0.4 Update
BioComp Profit 8.0.4 is now available. Profit 8 users should please head to the forums for release information and to download.

Giving Thanks for an Outstanding Year ...

** A 20% Reduction**

We've had an outstanding year across all our business sectors, nearly a record with one month to go. We are very thankful and in celebration, for a limited time, you can upgrade or get a new license to Dakota and/or Profit for a 20 percent reduction. Additional licenses are 1/2 of list price anyway, so existing customers will get a 60% reduction on those. Even more, the Preferred Customer Program applies, as always.

Profit 8.0 Info >>
Dakota Info >>

Order Profit >>
Order Dakota >>

Prices shown when ordering do not reflect the reduction. Your specific investment will be computed when your order is processed by a caring human. This is available only until Friday, December 12th, 11:59 PM. Sorry, it is not retroactive, but if you bought in the last 30 days, email us and we can offer you something of value.

New Dev JAMs Planned... Book Today to Get a Spot
We have 2 Dev JAMs planned, one in Las Vegas in June and one in Amsterdam in August, 2009. Exact dates will be tailored to those who first sign up. Dev JAMs are loosely structured, up-close and personal sessions for writing bots, stops, equity engines, indicators, model mergers and much more. Covers Dakota, Dakota R/T and Profit 8.
Learn More and Book Your Seat >>

Commentary

The "DS-ZScore" is My Friend
My favorite system in Dakota is my 1-bar-ahead Double Smoothed Z-Score 'bot' (DS-ZScore, available in the forums), stepped forward over a 10-year history of the S&P500 futures. For the last few day's it's been Long and snapped up the recent rally and then it reversed to Short, picked up some more points and is now at a new equity high, 2,779 points per contract over about 11 years. The equity curve did rattle around a bit from mid-September to mid-October effectively running sideways in the volatility, but since then it's done pretty well, reaching an all time high in its equity curve yesterday.

Here is its performance ever since these markets started disassembling...

Some "excitement" here or there... you have to be a trading cowboy to ride this bear but the system is hypothetically harvesting 278 points per emini, about $13,900/emini, during the period. Pretty good job considering its a 65-80 VIX market that is spiraling into the tank.
Info >>
Order >>

Multiple Equity Curves Tell a Broader Story...
Regarding equity curves, on November 18th a long-time customer posted a series of equity curves for systems in our Profit/Dakota forums, comparing which systems perform well relative to each other over a moving forward window. One of the things I noticed is that the equity curves scattered and diverged during the mid-September to mid-October period also, then resumed making good money. I think this shows the value of running multiple, different types of systems and watching their equity curves together, and if you see them scatter, then get out... somewhat a judgmental "stop" across systems. It tells you not so much that your system has broken down, but perhaps that the market has. Too often we see the market as the basis of performance, when in fact sometimes it actually fails to function, particularly in times like these. Very telling. Very useful. Very equity preserving.

Another comment he makes in his post; "I generally don’t have the time to upgrade or improve my Dakota swarms or Profit systems. So, I just keep using the same ones year after year … since they still work well enough for me.".

While other products suffer from "curve fitting", he uses his Profit and Dakota systems for years. That says a LOT.

ANSWER: What is the Risk of Hyper-Inflation?
In the last newsletter I asked, "... what is the risk of hyper-inflation...?" Hyper-inflation is run-away inflation. You can read about it here at Wikipedia. It's real. It's more common than you may think.

The answers I received were enlightening. Essentially in the near-term, people are rightly concerned about deflation, but I wasn't expecting hyperinflation to appear until bonds, bills, notes and any other governmental obligations came due. The key answer I got was that hyperinflation is not likely because the USD is a "reserve currency", somewhat anchored, but if it were to lose that status, then hyperinflation down the road is indeed possible, especially if the treasury has to "print" to pay the obligations.

Thanks!

Items of Interest

Dakota Videos
See how Dakota works and how to use it.
GO >>
Profit Videos
Watch a Quick Tour (Windows Media Video)
GO >>
Free Add-In Source Code
When you license Dakota you get access to source code for bots, stops and "Equity Engines" in VB6, C# and VB 2008 (.NET)!
Dakota Home ››
Profit Home ››

 

Customer Quotes
"One thing you can use for future reference is that we did some comparative time series work in [competitor] and BioComp to compare the results and BioComp produced better models every time."
- Rochester, New York, USA Oct 22, 2008

"Profit 8 is a modeling powerhouse."

"There have been times when I thought Dakota would completely supersede Profit. However, with the ingenious Carl Cook at the helm Profit is back with a vengeance!"
- Sydney, Australia, Oct 20, 2008

This newsletter is brought to you by BioComp Systems, Inc. Please forward it to anyone who might be interested. They can also subscribe at: http://www.biocompsystems.com/cgi-bin/mojo.cgi?f=s&l=Profit

These documents are provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in this document represents the current view of BioComp Systems on the material discussed as of the date of publication and may contain errors and omissions. Materials written should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of BioComp and BioComp cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information presented after the date of publication. INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED "AS IS" WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND FRE'EDOM FROM INFRINGEMENT. Statements of equity performance are hypothetical unless otherwise stated. Hypothetical results have not been substantiated by records of actual trading and have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those mentioned. The user assumes the entire risk as to the accuracy and the use of this document. This document may be copied and distributed subject to the following conditions: 1) The entire document must be copied without modification; 2) All copies must contain BioComp's copyright notice and any other notices provided therein; and 3) This document may not be distributed for profit. All trademarks acknowledged. (C) Copyright BioComp Systems, Inc. 2008.