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How Profit Works
BioComp Profit is an
end-of-day financial market timing tool that
uses predictive analytics to create profitable
timing models for securities. The fundamental concept behind Profit is
to find today's indicators and use them to build predictive models that give
profitable estimates of tomorrow's market movements. This way you can
use data today to suggest positions to take that will likely be profitable.
This is not a trivial task but can be very profitable. In order to do
an excellent job, Profit does this for one traded security at a time.
That is, you build a separate market timing system for each traded security.
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Step 1: Get Data
The first step is to use the Data window to get data about the security
you wish to trade and other data you think may drive (influence) your
traded security. Profit enables you to access data in Metastock
format or text files where each variable is in a column and each row is
a day. You can access multiple text files and Metastock formatted
data simultaneously. Profit synchronizes the data to date align it
and fills gaps where data is missing, particularly if you use data from
different exchanges in various countries, thus having different
holidays. The data window tells you information about each
security and the securities together and enables you to set the dates
for the period you wish to import. By default, Profit will import
up to 4 years of data, which offers a balance of recent quantity.
You can export data here to use in other software, whether it be trading
packages or Excel. For our international friends, Profit is
international settings sensitive so you can import text data in your
local format.
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Step 2: Create
Indicators
The next step is to create indicators. You create a predicted
variable, something similar to the change in price of the traded
security 2 days in
advance. Why 2 days? This is so that you can download data
today, take a position tomorrow and then take gains the day after that.
Profit's Indicator Building window offers you a palette of functions you
can apply to your imported data series so that you can create a wide
variety of indicators, with permutations in the billions. To make
it easier, Profit has built in equity based indicator optimization to
find combinations of mathematical functions to apply to your data to
maximize the equity power of your indicators. You can also chart
the indicators and see their equity performance (pro/elite versions
only) as though you were trading the indicator itself directly.
In Profit Pro and Elite,
you have more capabilities and indicators to choose from.
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Step 3: Key Indicators
(Optional)
In Profit Pro and Elite you can perform highly sophisticated "Causal
Analytics" (CA) and "Principle Variables Analysis" (PVA) to see to what
extent your indicators drive the desired timing signal. This
advanced analytics walks your variables through time measuring cause and
effect between your indicators and your timing signal. This tells
you the truth about the value of your indicators so you are not
"spoofed" into believing you have excellence only to learn otherwise
when reviewing your account balance. No other vendor gives you
this important capability.
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This capability offers
you a "Causal Map" that shows the strength of the cause and effect
relationship vs. time so you can see that variable X influences your
timing signal Y bars in the future. The indicators in the Yellow
zone are statistically likely to have a random effect on your market
movement forecasts and thus have questionable utility. Important
to know!
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Step 4: Build Models
Now that you have solid indicators, it's time to build predictive
models. These models translate today's indicators into tomorrow's
positions in a manner that is profitable, rather than accurate.
Doing this can be as simple as pushing the "Go" button. Profit
fits the models using an earlier portion of your data and will
hold-back, by default, 25% of the most recent data for "out-of-sample"
testing. This is so you can see the unmodeled hypothetical trading
performance of your system.
While modeling, Profit
will search through combinations of types and structures of our advanced
"Mesh" predictive modeling algorithms and through combinations of indicators to find the
most profitable models possible. While running you can see the
equity curve and statistics of the models being built. You can
choose the objective of the modeling, but Profit is generally seeking
upward trending smooth equity curves.
Profit brings in a set of
models that are combined into a trading "committee" who vote to create a
"System Model". This gives your systems more robustness.
In Profit Pro and Elite,
you have the ability to control the types of models built, how many
inputs to use, model diversity, date range to use, and can use more than
one CPU to do the modeling.
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Step 5: Evaluate
Results
Before using Profit's suggestions in your trading, you need to view your
system's hypothetical trading performance on data unseen in the
processes above. Many trading tools call this "back testing", but
we test forward by creating systems on older data then seeing how they
trade as they "play forward". The screen to the left is a VIX
system that was created four years ago. The green chart is
a graph of the hypothetical equity performance of this system and how it
continues to make money to this day (presuming one could directly trade
the VIX). You can also see your performance in more traditional
Open-High-Low-Close charts such as below. The blue lines are the
OHLC with trade indicators (red for short, green for long), then the
timing signal issued by Profit's System model is in yellow and the
equity curve is in red.
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We have only touched on the basics of Profit
and a limited number of features. There are many additional features
that are very helpful for creating equity-based market timing systems using
Profit. (Back to Profit's main page) |