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| Causal Analytics |
|
Types of Causal Analytics |
| Analysis Type | Description | Strengths | Weaknesses |
| Statistical Correlation | The correlation coefficient (R) or it's square (R2): the coefficient of determination. | Fast and easy to calculate. | Assumes
Unfortunately, these assumptions are frequently violated. In some cases, R cannot be calculated at all, or becomes unstable, or is so small relative to true cause and effect that it no longer has much worth. For example, highly non-linear operations with tight feedback loops. Similar means violations can be assisted by data scaling and normalization, however the data is no longer the same and variance and linearity violations may still exist. Timing must be deduced by applying the calculations repeatedly through sliding time windows. |
| Significant Event Detection | Observe the data and when a statistically significant event occurs on one variable watch, wait and record significant events on other variables and associate them. | Handles
linear and non-linear data alike.
Gives excellent indications of timing. Indicates positive or negative response between variables. |
Provides limited information on the effect's degree or strength, that is, how much A effects B. |
| Non-Linear Regression Modeling | Build models then perform "sensitivity" analysis, the calculation of the partial derivatives of the effect with respect to each possible cause. | Handles
linear and non-linear data alike.
Indicates positive or negative response between variables. |
Compute
intensive.
Does not give timing unless you use particular model types or use the calculation repeatedly through a sliding time windows. |
|
To overcome the weaknesses of
methods while drawing on their strength, we feel it is
important to use a hybrid approach to get a better measure of causality. We fuse these technologies together
using a confidence weighting. |
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